Firming up control
overweight - Maintained
Banks | Author (s): Soegiarto HADI, FRM +62 (21) 30061722,
Jakarta Post reported that the regulator may limit foreign ownership in banks to a 40% maximum (not retroactive) as early as 30 Sep 14 and require foreign banks 'Indonesian branches to operate as Perseroan Terbatas (PTS) rather than branches, potentially reducing interoffice fund-flow flexibility with their foreign-based parents. The regulation may reduce the attractiveness of Danamon, Panin and BTPN as foreign M & A targets. We maintain our Overweight position with catalysts still expected from foreign inflow. BMRI, BBRI dan BBTN are our top picks.
SECTOR COMPARISON
1.BBCA - HOLD - 11,050 - CY P/BV14 (x): 3.63
2.BDMN - Reduce - 3.850 - CY P/BV14 (x): 1.20
3.BMRI - ADD - 10,700 - CY P/BV14 (x): 2.32
4.BBNI - HOLD - 4.800 - CY P/BV14 (x): 1.72
5.PNBN - Reduce - 760 - CY P/BV14 (x): 1,01
6.BBRI - ADD - 10,250 - CY P/BV14 (x): 2.96
7.BBTN - ADD - 1.300 - CY P/BV14 (x): 0.98 (very cheap!!!)
8.BTPN - HOLD - 4.500 - CY P/BV14 (x): 1.90
Sumber: Riset CIMB 15 JULI 2014
Menurut Agus, bank asal Indonesia yang sudah siap berekspansi ke negara lain adalah bank kategori bank umum kelompok usaha (BUKU) IV, yakni mereka dengan modal inti di atas Rp 30 triliun. Ada empat bank yang masuk BUKU IV yakni, Bank Mandiri, Bank Central Asia, Bank Negara Indonesia dan Bank Rakyat Indonesia (lihat tabel).
Kinerja Bank Buku IV per Mei 2014 (dalam triliun rupiah)
Keterangan BMRI BBCA BBRI BBNI
Aset 655,56 502,98 604,59 391,93
Modal 88,85 67,35 84,82 49,71
Laba
Bersih 7,27 6,16 9,77 3,83
Sumber: Bank IndonesiaSumber:
Bank lokal segera bebas ekspansi ke Asean
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